South Africa Joined BRIC Countries Development Forecasting
Recently, South Africa, BRIC cooperation mechanism has been accepted as a member of the meaning of this incident, people should remain cautious enough; it’s not like Goldman Sachs BRIC concept as originally proposed, suggesting some kind of development prospects, just an event of international relations; it can be regarded as the four countries of the South African national power and international status as a recognized and hope in the next stage of international relations and coordination with which to obtain understanding, as to whether South Africa’s attractiveness to investors will increase, is another matter.
In my opinion, the situation may be just the opposite; many people think of South Africa to represent Africa, but in fact it is far less than the weight of Africa as it shows the total economy so much, despite the total GDP of Africa nearly 1 / 4, but South Africa from not become Africa’s financial center, or academic and scientific centers, in addition to several neighboring countries, the number of African countries do not have political influence, cultural attraction or value of the appeal, although sometimes be some neighboring countries to escape famine and war, the people The influx of South Africa, but it is not Africa, young people or entrepreneurs who aspire to paradise.
In 1993, after apartheid, South Africa has indeed experienced a rare good time; in the Mbeki-led policy of 14 years, perhaps due to the prevailing international trend, he successfully resisted the consciousness of his party’s populist form, to avoid the old ally of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe forced the implementation of land reform and nationalization, but always adhere to the market policy, respect for property rights, free trade and private enterprise, it is these, so that per capita GDP of South Africa turned in ten years a lot, while maintaining low inflation and low deficits.
However, the good days seem to have been in the past and probably will not come again, not only because the incumbent president Jacob Zuma’s populist economic policies have a strong tendency, intended to strengthen the redistribution and socialism, but also in the social situation in South Africa, makes almost inevitable that the increasing tendency to occupy the dominant position of South African politics.
Although apartheid has been abolished, but the social antagonism and conflict in South Africa is far from resolved, and its Gini coefficient up to 0.7, the world, and 24% unemployment rate in industrialized countries is also abnormally high at the same time, it has world rape rates and the world’s second rate of murders and violent attacks; is not difficult to imagine that such a background of elected governments, almost impossible is not a social welfare hold high the banner of Robin Hood and the government.
Mandela, Mbeki, the Government can long resist populist impulses attributed to the background of the revolution brought about by the veteran is difficult to challenge the legitimacy and political status, and start from Zuma, this condition is apparently no longer exists, He needs to find a new political basis for its power, and his successor or competitors will certainly be greater than that; Moreover, the international trend for years to come, for those who adhere to the political power of the free market, I am afraid will be very negative.
To make matters worse, South Africa’s rule of law and the independence of the judicial system, there seems to be shaken signs of this are involved in corruption from the Zuma rape case and the handling of the process, has first emerged; and Justice on the stain and the suspect does not appear to affect the political status of Zuma, his supporters do not seem to mind that, this is the most terrible fear of such a political atmosphere for the future behavior of politicians undermine the rule of law Open the door.
Compared with the rule of law, a country’s economic policy is easy to flip, as long as a solid constitutional and rule of law, bad policy always have the opportunity to be corrected, for example, long after India carried out an independent economic policy of rigid closed, when the nation trends change, the policy shortcomings of the old filling, it soon turned to track the market; however, the rule of law is damaged, it is difficult to have the opportunity to be restored, which is South Africa’s most worrisome.
For the future of South Africa, particularly bleak point is that once it took to degradation of the rule of law, policy populist this road, do not see any outside force to stop it falling, so far not a big country as the political trends in South Africa its strategic interests, and to South Africa great, even if you want to interfere too hard to do, Moreover, South Africa was a country with extensive resources, other countries are more motivated to please it, not change it.
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